15 biggest Grammy surprises: Killer Mike, Paramore, Chris Stapleton …

Daniel Montgomery
·6 min read
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In 2023 Gold Derby’s racetrack odds missed every general field category — surprises abounded! But this year our odds were spot-on in all four of those races, with Album of the Year going to Taylor Swift (“Midnights”), Record of the Year going to Miley Cyrus (“Flowers”), Song of the Year going to Billie Eilish (“What Was I Made For?”) and Best New Artist going to Victoria Monet. Still, there were 15 categories out of the 37 we were predicting where most of our users were expecting a different result. Did you see these outcomes coming?

SEE2024 Grammy winners list in all 94 categories

BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE: “Ghost in the Machine” by SZA feat. Phoebe Bridgers

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In recent years this award has gone to the biggest hit nominated. This year that was “Karma” by Taylor Swift and Ice Spice. And since Swift was also the front-runner for Album of the Year, we figured she’d take this too. Instead, the combined powers of nine-time nominee SZA and seven-time nominee Bridgers were enough to win the day.

BEST ROCK ALBUM: “This is Why” by Paramore

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC PERFORMANCE: “This is Why” by Paramore

The band only had the above two nominations this year. Most of us didn’t expect them to win either of them, let alone both. In Best Rock Album they beat Grammy stalwarts Foo Fighters, who were nominated for their highly acclaimed and deeply personal “But Here We Are.” And in Best Alternative Music Performance they upset acts who were nominated for a combined 11 Grammys including Album of the Year: Lana Del Rey and Boygenius.

SEEGrammys 2024 winners: Best prediction scores by our Editors and Users

BEST R&B PERFORMANCE: Coco Jones, “ICU”

BEST R&B SONG: “Good Morning” by PJ Morton feat. Susan Carol

SZA was the most nominated artist of the year with nine bids, so it seemed as though she’d be hard to beat in her genre. Our odds had her going four-for-four in those races, but we were only half right. She did take Best R&B Song for “Snooze” and Best Progressive R&B Album for “SOS,” but the Recording Academy spread the wealth more than expected.

BEST RAP PERFORMANCE: “Scientists and Engineers” by Killer Mike feat. André 3000, Future and Eryn Allen Kane

BEST RAP SONG: “Scientists and Engineers” by Killer Mike feat. André 3000, Future and Eryn Allen Kane

BEST RAP ALBUM: “Michael” by Killer Mike

This year was tricky without a single obvious contender to dominate the rap field. Drake and 21 Savage’s album “Her Loss” swept the nominations, and it was a chart-topping hit, but the reviews were tepid. Other successful albums like Travis Scott‘s “Utopia” and Metro Boomin‘s “Heroes and Villains” scored Best Rap Album noms, but they had little or no support in other categories. We didn’t, however, expect for voters to turn to Killer Mike across the board. Before today he had only ever won one Grammy: Best Rap Duo/Group Performance 21 years ago for “The Whole World.” But critics liked it (77 on MetaCritic), so despite it only peaking at number-58 on the Billboard 200, it turned out to be the overwhelming choice of the academy in a relatively slow year for hip-hop.

SEEGrammys live blog: Taylor Swift claims historic Album of the Year prize, but voters spread the wealth

BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE: “White Horse” by Chris Stapleton

BEST COUNTRY SONG: “White Horse” by Chris Stapleton

Doubt Chris Stapleton at your peril. He has now won 10 Grammys, so whenever he’s nominated in the country field it’s usually smart to bet on him. This year, though, he was up against songs that were such big hits — Luke Combs‘s “Fast Car” in Country Solo and Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves‘s “I Remember Everything” in Country Song — that it seemed like he might struggle this time. Not so. His album “Higher” is eligible for Grammys in 2025, so maybe we should already be penciling him in for three or four more trophies in a year’s time.

BEST COUNTRY ALBUM: “Bell Bottom Country” by Lainey Wilson

We knew she had support in the country music industry. “Bell Bottom Country” won Album of the Year at both the CMA Awards and ACM Awards. She even won Entertainer of the Year at the 2023 CMAs. But the Recording Academy seemed a little more ambivalent. They only nominated her here and in Best Country Duo/Group Performance. She was eligible for Best New Artist but was snubbed there. So this was another case where we put our money on the biggest commercial hit, Zach Bryan‘s self-titled release. Bryan did end up winning Best Country Duo/Group for the aforementioned “I Remember Everything,” but we should’ve listened to the country kudos and picked Wilson here.

BEST LATIN POP ALBUM: “X Mi (Vol. 1)” by Gaby Moreno

Maluma was the most widely recognizable star nominated, which is often a benefit at the Grammys, for better or worse. But as our own Jaime Rodriguez wrote, Moreno was “a previous nominee for her work despite not being a huge seller, mostly due to respect from her peers.” That translated to victory.

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BEST MUSICAL THEATER ALBUM: “Some Like It Hot”

Our odds had this pegged as a two-way race between the Tony winner for Best Musical, “Kimberly Akimbo” (which also won the Tony for Best Original Score), and a revival of a classic by the beloved Stephen Sondheim, “Sweeney Todd.” “Some Like It Hot” also did well at the Tonys, winning four, but losing Best Musical and Best Score at those awards made it look like an underdog here. Apparently a lot of people like it “Hot.”

BEST COMEDY ALBUM: “What’s in a Name?” by Dave Chappelle

Doubt Dave Chappelle at your peril. He’s the Chris Stapleton of stand-up comedy, if you will. He has been nominated for Best Comedy Album five times and won five times. So even though front-runner Trevor Noah was hosting the Grammys show for the fourth year, we overestimated how sentimental voters would be about that.

BEST MUSIC VIDEO: “I’m Only Sleeping” by The Beatles

The artistic animated video for the Beatles song defeated presumed front-runner “What Was I Made For?,” which had the advantage of widespread academy love, earning five nominations in total. But no one could be too upset — or too surprised — to lose a Grammy to The Beatles.

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