2024 Emmy Experts predict Best Drama Actress: Anna Sawai (‘Shōgun’) takes the lead

Having trouble predicting who will win Best Drama Actress at the upcoming Emmy Awards? Let’s consult Gold Derby’s 2024 Emmy Experts! These savvy pundits from major media outlets have chimed in with their predictions, and the majority of them believe the trophy will go to Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”). The other potential nominees, per our current racetrack odds, are Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”), Emma Stone (“The Curse”), Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”), Juliette Binoche (“The New Look”) and Carrie Preston (“Elsbeth”).

As of this writing, a leading six out of our 17 Emmy Experts predict a victory for Sawai: Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Clayton Davis (Variety), Dave Nemetz (TV Line), Eric Deggans (NPR), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby) and Peter Travers (ABC). She plays Toda Mariko, a Japanese translator who has an allegiance to Lord Yoshii Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada). Sawai shared in the ensemble prize at last year’s Spirit Awards for “Pachinko,” but “Shōgun” would be her first Emmy citation.

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Three of our Emmyologists — Jazz Tangcay (Variety), Kelly Lawler (USA Today) and Shawn Edwards (WDAF-TV Fox) — instead believe Staunton will prevail for the sixth and final season of Netflix’s “The Crown.” The English actress is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the two prior Queen Elizabeth II portrayers, Olivia Colman and Claire Foy, who both claimed Best Drama Actress trophies for their last seasons. To date, Staunton’s only Emmy citation is for the TV movie “The Girl” (2013).

SEE Watch our lively chats with hundreds of 2024 Emmy contenders

A trio of pundits — Ben Travers (Indiewire), Keith Simanton (IMDb) and Matt Roush (TV Guide Magazine) — predict Stone will win for “The Curse.” She takes on the role of Whitney Siegel, the host of an HGTV show about energy efficient homes, on Showtime’s quirky drama. While Stone has never been nominated at the Emmys, she does of course have two Best Actress Oscars to her name for “La La Land” (2016) and “Poor Things” (2023).

Both Ray Richmond (Gold Derby) and Wilson Morales (BlackFilmandTV) are backing a victory for Aniston. She plays journalist Alex Levy who, during Season 3 of Apple TV+’s “The Morning Show,” begins a romantic relationship with tech billionaire Paul Marks (Jon Hamm). This would be Aniston’s ninth overall Emmy nomination, having won on the comedy side for “Friends” in 2002.

Another pair of Experts — Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby) and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby) — forecast that Binoche will take home the statue for Apple TV+’s “The New Look.” She portrays fashion designer/businesswoman Coco Chanel opposite Ben Mendelsohn‘s Christian Dior. Binoche won the Best Supporting Actress Oscar for “The English Patient” (1996), but she has yet to be invited to the Emmys.

Finally, Susan King (Gold Derby) stands alone in thinking Preston will triumph for “Elsbeth.” She previously won the Best Drama Guest Actress race for playing Elsbeth Tascioni on “The Good Wife” in 2013, but now she’s headlining her own series in which the quirky lawyer works under a consent decree in New York City.

Some of the most recent Emmy winners in the Best Drama Actress category include Sarah Snook (“Succession”) in 2023, Zendaya (“Euphoria”) in 2022 and ’20, Colman in 2021, Jodie Comer (“Killing Eve”) in 2019, and Foy in 2018. Find out who will be in the running to join this esteemed list when the Primetime Emmy nominations are announced on July 17, 2024.

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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