2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

The thing about the Primetime Emmys nowadays is that if one’s show did not capture voters’ attention the first time around, it becomes an uphill battle to get on their radar. There is just too much television out there to consider giving even one season of a series a try, much less multiple.

There is where the issue lies in determining if actors like “Loki” star Tom Hiddleston, “Slow Horses” star Gary Oldman, or “The Gilded Age” star Morgan Spector will receive an Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series nomination, since they missed out on one in their show’s previous season (twice in Oldman’s case.) Spector seems like the best bet as there is no network quite like HBO when it comes to landing on voters’ radars in the Drama Series races.

That said, this season offered plenty of shiny new options, from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” star Donald Glover and “The Curse” star Nathan Fielder stretching themselves as writer/performers into more dramatic material after receiving TV Academy recognition for their inventive comedic work.

There is also Walton Goggins finally getting a blockbuster star vehicle with video game adaptation “Fallout,” which has basically become Amazon Prime Video’s biggest hit series. Since his breakout in “Justified,” which is so far his only Primetime Emmy nomination, Goggins has become a TV staple (for example, he is currently filming the heavily anticipated third season of “The White Lotus.”) A nod coming his way is akin to the awards narrative Pedro Pascal had last season with “The Last of Us,” even though their two post-apocalyptic shows are very different.

But the show dominating Drama Series race conversations is FX hit “Shōgun,” which boasts two lead performances. Though Cosmo Jarvis does a great take on an iconic Richard Chamberlain role, it is hard not to believe this category is star Hiroyuki Sanada’s to lose, as his turn as Toranaga exemplifies this new adaptation of the famous James Clavell novel’s perspective shift toward its Japanese characters. Plus, Sanada was a very hands-on producer on the show.

Predicted Nominees:
Nathan Fielder, “The Curse” (Showtime)
Donald Glover, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Walton Goggins, “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Cosmo Jarvis, “Shōgun” (FX)
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shōgun” (FX)
Morgan Spector, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)

Contenders:
Colin Farrell, “Sugar” (Apple TV+)
Tom Hiddleston, “Loki” (Disney+)
Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV+)

Also Consider This:
Paul Giamatti, “Billions” (Showtime)
John Leguizamo, “The Green Veil” (The Network)
Zahn McClarnon, “Dark Winds” (AMC)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: At best, an actor from an HBO series like “The Gilded Age” star Morgan Spector winning would continue the winning streak the pay cable network has in this category. Slightly more likely though is Dominic West being the second actor to win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series for his portrayal of Prince Charles on Netflix’s “The Crown” (the first was Josh O’Connor for his performance in Season 4.)
Notable Ineligible Series: Brian Cox, Kieran Culkin, and Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (ended); Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul” (ended); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible); Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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