Emmy Experts Typing: Who will make the truncated limited lead lineups?

Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen
·10 min read
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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the limited field, where the lead categories went down to five slots.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! As Emmy voting continues, what better time than now to look again at the limited series race? This one got a lot more interesting once “Shōgun” exited the premises, and then again last week when it was revealed there would only be five nominees in the lead actor and actress races due to a shortage of submissions. We updated our Emmy predictions this week — I apologize again to those angered Selenators, many of whom directed their ire toward my Twitter mentions after I dropped her from my picks — and differed on where the Best Limited/TV Movie Actress contest might land. Like most, we’ve got the ostensible favorites there: Jodie Foster, Brie Larson, Juno Temple and Sofia Vergara. Like the sheep that I am, I’ve got Kate Winslet in my fifth slot based on… vibes? Pedigree? Name value? I’m not even sure. The sharp expert that you are, you’ve got Naomi Watts in there for “Feud: Capote vs. The Swans.” In terms of my beloved #campaigning, both Winslet and Watts are Doing the Work. It feels like this could come down to which show the voters liked more (uh, toss-up?) and which performer they most enjoyed, right? Or what if we’re (I’m) too certain of the top four and both Winslet and Watts make it through? My Twitter algorithm has fed me a steady diet of Nicole Kidman content this week thanks to her AFI tribute and I can’t imagine I’m alone. She was great on “Expats,” playing another complicated character, and people just love her — including Watts, of course. Amazon has pushed “Expats” hard, and I could clearly see a world where she makes it alongside Watts and Winslet. If that happens, two of the expected four nominees would be left “snubbed.” I feel pretty certain about Foster and Larson, however, so that means in this fantasy I’ve created, Temple and Vergara are vulnerable. We don’t really know anything about what voters are thinking necessarily, but what do you think? Could one of the four favorites get left behind in favor of Kidman or Watts or your former pick, Uzo Aduba?

joyceeng: Are you trying to build a lineup of Oscar winners and nominees? I’m surprised you didn’t make a case for Jessica Lange for an all-winners slate. I can’t really see any of the top four missing. You were slow to join the Vergara train, but I’ve had her in from the start since “Griselda” was such a hit that we were subjected to forced banter about its viewership numbers at the SAG Awards. Speaking of SAG, of the two contenders who were eligible in the winter, Temple was snubbed by the guild while Larson made it in, so you could argue that the “Fargo” star is the weakest of the four. Watts was the best part of “Feud,” but the installment is not one for which many can muster excitement. I know more people who quit the show than finished it, and those who finished it were, uh, not the biggest fans. Maybe that won’t matter with voters, like how Sarah Paulson got in two years ago for playing a real person in an underwhelming season of a Ryan Murphy-produced anthology series. But Paulson had been an Emmy mainstay (and winner) in the last decade, while Watts is angling for her first nomination and has never been an awards magnet in film or TV. Winslet might better fit the mold of a Paulson — former winner many had given up on — but I feel like she’s more of a Rachel Weisz: someone who was over-predicted before her show was seen because of pedigree, aura, Oscars, whatever, but her show was “weird” and/or “difficult” and never hit, so she wound up on the outside looking in. The last time this category was a field of five was three years ago when Winslet won for “Mare of Easttown.” That predicted quintet was rock solid and came to fruition, but the last two years, which were fields of six, have produced “surprise” nominees (that’s in scare quotes because I long had Dominique Fishback last year, but she was ultimately in seventh place by nominations day). Aduba did get the SAG nomination and the three-time Emmy champ is a proven fave with the TV academy, so I’ve thought about ditching Watts for her, and I’m not sure if I would swap Watts for anyone else. This is exactly how I feel about the actor race: consensus top four and then a pick’em for the fifth spot. I still have Hoa Xuande in there because why not? But I know everyone is hopedicting Matt Bomer. He did hit SAG, but so did your fave, David Oyelowo, and four-time Emmy winner Tony Shalhoub.

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Christopher Rosen: I haven’t put Xuande back into my predictions yet — I kept Oyelowo in the fifth spot when I was forced to cut someone loose. But “The Sympathizer” was great largely because of his performance. Plus, I talked to him about the show. So you know I will likely wind up going back to him when we make our final picks, even if I think Xuande’s show will sadly underperform. This is a conversation for Phase 2, but I do wonder what will happen to Xuande’s Oscar-winning co-star, Robert Downey Jr. He could certainly win — I assume the nomination is a forgone conclusion — because Downey’s quintuple act is pretty remarkable. But Tom Goodman-Hill feels like an intriguing dark horse. His “Baby Reindeer” performance is an absolute nightmare — so toxic, so affecting. And since I assume “Baby Reindeer” will win multiple Emmys this year — including lead actor and supporting actress — I could see Goodman-Hill coattailing to his own win. But I guess he has to get nominated first. He’s currently in 10th place in the odds. Way back when “Baby Reindeer” first popped, you were an early adopter on the show itself and Goodman-Hill, assuming he made it onto the ballot. Now that he is, do you think this race that many have already written off is back in play?

joyceeng: Given “The Sympathizer’s” struggles, this race would be in play even if “Baby Reindeer” did not exist. Both supporting categories are a mess, but more so with the dudes because none of them feel as solid as Jessica Gunning and Kali Reis. No shade — I enjoyed many of their performances — but it feels like most, if not all, of them wouldn’t even be in the conversation any other year. RDJ could be another Weisz too, but I think he’ll make it since the category is in such disarray. Like you said, it’d be more of a question whether he’d win, which Film Twitter was so certain of when that trailer giving him four title cards dropped in February. TGH can definitely get into such an open field since he’s on the biggest hit that is likely winning series, but I’m not sure about a victory since the Emmys rarely go for “villains.” I do feel like we’re in for some real surprises in this category, like three years ago when the predicted top three — John Boyega, Bill Camp and Donald Sutherland (RIP) — all missed, in addition to No. 6 Brendan Gleeson. I mentioned the other day that I was considering loading up on actors from one show in both supporting categories and I still might do that. I think I’d err more toward “Fargo” than “Feud” (and I’ve already added Richa Moorjani), but there’s no guarantee that voters will double back to “Fargo” after Season 4 failed to strike a chord. I can see people like Sandra Oh and Dakota Fanning, who have no real internal competition from their shows, filling out supporting actress if support is lacking for all the “Fargo” and “Feud” ladies.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: How strongly will ‘The Crown’ rebound in acting after getting a single nomination last year?

Christopher Rosen: They do rarely go for “villains” but we have to look no further than last year/this year when Paul Walter Hauser won for playing a suspected serial killer of young girls. So maybe Goodman-Hill has this race right where he wants it. Sandra Oh is another online fave, and I could see her getting in because she’s Sandra Oh. But I also wish “The Sympathizer” had any buzz around it. Satires are tricky, right? “The White Lotus” excoriated rich, white liberals but had enough plausible deniability that viewers could separate themselves from the biting material: “I’m not like that person!” But “The Sympathizer” is, in the end, a broad takedown of Hollywood storytellers and the myth-making they employ while erasing the marginalized. Maybe it cuts too close to the bone? Fanning would be funny, but I’m not sure anyone will coattail Andrew Scott, except maybe for the show itself. I will say, I love how unpredictable this race is right now — particularly since “Baby Reindeer” is going to “Beef” it up in Phase 2. Unless, of course, the oppo campaign against the show’s truth bona fides makes this a race. Joyce, I’ll leave you with the last word here: Wanna make the case for “The Great Lillian Hall”?

joyceeng: That’s why “villains” is in scare quotes. PWH played a real-life convict, but his character is given dimension and depth through his relationship with Jimmy Keene and what we learn about his upbringing. I wouldn’t go so far to say you sympathize with Larry Hall, but there’s an “understanding.” He falls into the bucket of complex male antagonists who thrive with awards bodies, but Goodman-Hill isn’t afforded the same complexity on “Baby Reindeer” since it is told from Donny’s POV, so viewers just see Darrien as a groomer and rapist. And given his comparatively shorter screen time — we only see him when Donny sees him, in the flashback episode and the brief finale scene — viewers also don’t spend enough time with him to “feel” for him. Don’t get me wrong — it’s a tricky role and I think he was great, but their roles and the way they function in their shows aren’t the same. Your “Sympathizer” theory could apply to voters for sure (similar to how “May December” may have been too real for actors), but the main reason it’s buzz-less is because people just didn’t watch. Is this another “Scenes from a Marriage”? Will RDJ be the Oscar Isaac? I, too, only have Scott in for “Ripley” acting representation, but I would predict Fanning before Johnny Flynn — but the real supporting actor is King aka Lucio. You should be the one making the case for “The Great Lillian Hall” since you’re the one predicting it. Its last-minute premiere is not ideal, so I’m not going to touch it, but good luck to it.

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