Bryan Norcross: New Gulf of Mexico system won't have time to organize much
Updated Saturday 11 a.m. ET
The little brother of Tropical Storm Alberto is becoming organized in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is officially calling this system Invest 93L. This disturbance will not have much time to strengthen, however. It's forecast to move inland late tomorrow or early Monday. Still, it will bring more torrential rain to parts of northeast Mexico.
Satellite loops show broad circulation is already developing. Bands of heavy rain are rotating across the northeast Mexican coast. Much of Mexico has been in a desperate drought, so they can handle a lot of rain. But too much all at once will be a problem, of course, like it was in Alberto in some areas.
The outer edges of the disturbance will bring tropical downpours to South Texas over the weekend. Here too, the rain is a good thing if it doesn't come all at once.
This disturbance will not have the widespread effects of Alberto. It won't grow as large, and high pressure to the north is weakening, so the strong, persistent wind that caused so much water rise along the coast won't occur. Still, some minor coastal flooding at high tide is likely from the onshore winds on the southern Texas coast.
The tropical system, in whatever form it takes, should be inland by early Monday. Next week, dry air will move into the area, and hot and sunny weather will return.
Southeast coast system dying out: The system we were watching yesterday, called Invest 92 L, moved to the Georgia coast and is slowly dying there. There is still a cluster of strong thunderstorms around the old center of circulation, but the system has essentially dissipated.
The tropical moisture that the disturbance dragged to the Southeast coast remains, however. So tropical downpours over southeast Georgia and the Florida peninsula are likely, especially in the heat of the day.
Elsewhere in the tropics: Long-range computer forecasts show the tropics calming down after the Gulf system goes inland.
We don't expect much tropical activity in late June and early July, and it looks like Mother Nature will conform to our expectations for the next week and maybe more.
Original article source: Bryan Norcross: New Gulf of Mexico system won't have time to organize much
