Climate change could affect the food we grow. A UA researcher seeks ways to adapt
What if you could take foods grown in the Sonoran Desert and plant them around the world, addressing future food insecurity worsened by a warming planet?
That’s the goal of a University of Arizona researcher who is trying to envision what the dishes of the future will look like with ingredients grown today in one climate that could grow well someplace else in 50 years.
Tasting Tomorrow began in a part of the country where changes in the climate could one day change the way food is grown. From the dry heat of summer days to cool winter evenings, Tucson’s desert climate is a sanctuary for residents and plants that dislike cold, wet weather.
"Traditional cuisine is premised on what has grown well in the past in the place where that cuisine originates," said Jonathon Keats, a research associate at the University of Arizona’s Desert Laboratory on Tumamoc Hill. "Climate change alters the conditions agriculturally of what will grow in the future."
The arid conditions of the Sonoran Desert, paired with monsoon rains, shape both the land and its people. Desert plants thrive in this environment, from cactuses and shrubs to native food crops like prickly pear, tepary beans and agave.
But as climate patterns shift on a warming planet, Tucson’s weather could transform in the coming decades, affecting not only residents' lifestyles but the availability of the foods they eat.
Scientists use climate analog mapping, a technique that identifies and compares locations with similar climate conditions, both in the present and under future climate scenarios, to predict climate change.
Under this model, Tucson’s climate could be similar to desert cities in the Middle East. Tucson — like many other cities in the world — will likely have a hotter and drier future, making it difficult to grow traditional and native food crops.
“When we talk about sustainability, we need to be thinking about the appropriateness of a food crop to the climate,” Keats said. “We need to think about it not only in terms of the current climate but also the future climate.”
Keats hopes to address future food scarcity while protecting heritage foods with the Tasting Tomorrow project.
With collaborators from UA, North Carolina State University, and web designers, Keats has created a website allowing users to share information about local, plant-based ingredients from their hometowns, like preparation methods, taste and texture.
The information is integrated into a database that allows other users living in similar climates to find ingredients that could be adapted to both their climates and traditional recipes.
“The feedback loops can be exacerbated where we grow crops that are inappropriate and therefore require more resources that place greater pressures on environmental systems,” Keats said.
Keats hopes the project can help people envision how a warmer future can affect the dinner table by examining dishes and climates in the U.S., Spain and Mexico to protect food supplies and heritage dishes.
He also plans to apply this methodology to another project adapting traditional architecture to the changing climate.
“It’s about mitigation,” Keats said. “We still have the agency and responsibility to make changes today.”
Tasting tomorrow, today
When creating Tasting Tomorrow, Keats hoped to find an intersection between culture and climate change, knowing the latter can be a controversial concept.
“Food is one of the few topics that everybody I have encountered is interested in,” Keats said. “Everybody has a story and experiences that are rich and meaningful to them personally and also that connect them with others.”
He believes connecting climate change and food can help people come to terms with a warming climate and prepare for the future.
As the atmosphere warms, extreme weather events, droughts and other phenomena that can impact agriculture will become more common. Adapting farming techniques can save crops, but ultimately worsen climate stressors, according to Keats.
“If we use fossil fuels to power greenhouses to grow crops that were once out in the world — but now require that temperature to be controlled — using those fossil fuels is going to contribute to the core cause of climate change," Keats said.
He believes introducing food crops traditionally grown in other areas of the world that are suited to the changing climate is a better solution.
Tasting Tomorrow’s online database helps chefs and home cooks identify alternative ingredients that will be locally sustainable in 50 years. For example, Tucson’s prickly pear fruit could be replaced with pomegranate, the drought-tolerant fruit native to the Middle East.
Bringing Tucson to Spain
Keats collaborated with Tucson chef Janos Wilder to bring his vision for Tasting Tomorrow to life — or to the table. They adapted a traditional stew from Burgos, Spain, using foods grown in its analog, Tucson, during the 2022 Pueblos del Maiz festival.
Wilder helped establish Tucson as a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization City of Gastronomy to highlight the area’s culinary culture and history. Using the area's 5,000-year gastronomic and agricultural history, Wilder substituted native ingredients into a traditional Spanish dish.
“The crops that grow here are already adapted to the sort of climate that, sadly, many parts of the world will have to get accustomed to in the future,” Wilder said. “So why not use ingredients that we know can grow here in this harsh environment as the baseline?”
They experimented with olla podrida, a meat, bean and vegetable stew. Wilder replaced Spanish red beans with tepary beans and the rice used as a binder in the recipe’s blood sausage with Sonoran white wheat berries.
He stayed faithful to the preparation techniques families would be familiar with, safeguarding years of culinary tradition. Keats said there was “no question” it was olla podrida, although the texture was different.
“We all thought it was pretty darn good,” Wilder said. “We were able to keep the flavors alive.”
Wilder and Keats hope other UNESCO Cities of Gastronomy will adapt their traditional dishes using climate analogs, combining culinary, climatology and botanical expertise to preserve traditional flavors while integrating climate-adapted food crops.
While techniques from Tasting Tomorrow could address climate-induced food insecurity in the future, Wilder appreciates how the project can console people during difficult times of transition.
“The food that people bring with them to a new world are the things that are going to comfort them, the memories, flavors and traditions from home,” he said.
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Tasting Tomorrow in Mexico City
Mexico City is known for its experimental culinary scene, blending tradition and innovation from high-end restaurants to street vendors, making it the perfect setting for Tasting Tomorrow.
Keats has partnered with the Metropolitan Autonomous University in Mexico City, bringing a new take on traditional dishes to the university’s cafeteria.
Students have tried environmentally friendly dishes in monthly Tasting Tomorrow events, some recipes using ingredients from Mexico City’s climate analog, Oaxaca.
Bruno Gandlgruber, an economics professor at the university, hopes the program can encourage students and staff to try different foods and envision a future living with climate change.
“We don’t want to be too invasive, but carefully give information and create more consciousness on these issues so step by step people can get to better-informed decisions,” he said. “Usually there’s a very narrow conception of what the future will look like related to climate collapse and food production.”
The university has hosted four Tasting Tomorrow sessions so far. They served a chapuline sauce, using grasshoppers from Oaxaca and mole amarillo, a traditional Mexican sauce from Oaxaca.
A favorite among students was pozole, which organizers aimed to reduce meat consumption by using mushrooms in the stew.
“Flavor-wise and texturally, it was pretty good,” said Sara Margarita Bustamante Loya, a student at the university. “One of my colleagues was inspired by that recipe and made that his meal for the next month.”
Not only has Tasting Tomorrow offered students traditional dishes with a twist, but the ingredients are often cheaper. Loya has used mushrooms as a meat substitute when cooking, which helps her save money at the grocery store.
She grew up in a rural area and has witnessed how Mexico’s agricultural landscape has changed as temperatures and water scarcity rise. Tasting Tomorrow has given her hope that people can adapt their diets with climate-resilient ingredients.
“It’s giving visibility toward other alternatives,” Loya said. “There are different options that can be used in different environments to give communities options when it comes to their food sources.”
Building a different tomorrow?
Keats plans to use climate analogs in another project dealing with architecture. He hopes to explore how traditional residential architecture, like Tucson’s adobes, can be used in other areas of the world to better protect people from climate change.
“Houses that were appropriate in the past may no longer be appropriate in the future,” Keats said. “In terms of thermodynamics, building physics, maintenance and the practical ways in which housing works as a protective structure.”
Keats received a grant from the Fraunhofer Network, a German research organization, to develop the project over the next three years. It will include a similar website to Tasting Tomorrow, sharing techniques on how to construct traditional homes adapted to specific climates.
“So the question in housing is similar to the food question,” Keats said. “How can we retain the cultural and spiritual aspects of what is familiar to them while providing what they need physically and not further imperiling their environment?”
Hayleigh Evans covers environmental issues for The Arizona Republic and azcentral. Send tips or questions to hayleigh.evans@arizonarepublic.com.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: UA program seeks ways to adapt food production to a changing climate
