A Georgia Tech study on Coastal Georgia predicted population growth in 2006. Was it right?
Bryan County was named the fastest growing county in Georgia by the U.S. Census in 2020, while Effingham County's population has exceeded 70,000. The Georgia Coast 2030 study, conducted by Georgia Tech, predicted the population boom when the research was completed in 2006.
The study — which included 45 interviewees such as local officials, school administrators, mayors and city managers — showed that Bryan and Effingham counties would grow to more than 45,000 and 79,000, by 2030 respectively.
With nearly two decades to prepare for the spike in growth, the study begs the question: why is the region unprepared in terms of housing supply, workforce development and water resources to absorb this level of growth?
Here is what we know:
More: Effingham County gives update on parks, population growth during State of the County event
Why are people moving to Coastal Georgia?
Forbes.com released the best cities to live in 2024 based on a number of factors, including quality of life, desirability, job market and value.
Georgia’s warm environment, close proximity to beaches and lakes and school systems in Bryan and Effingham counties have been drawing out-of-towners to the area for years.
The Savannah Morning News took to social media to ask residents in Bryan and Effingham County why they migrated south, which generated 70 responses.
Here is what they had to say:
"Came from Indiana and moved to Georgia in 2019, moved to Richmond Hill in 2021 for the school system," said Christina Jones of Effingham County.
"I moved here to be closer to the ocean a year and a half ago," said Christina Spicer of Effingham County. "My family and I moved from Idaho to escape winter and I certainly have no regrets."
"I came from Youngstown, Ohio," said Effingham County resident Brittany Hudak. "Needed the beach, warmth, sunny skies and things to do."
"We moved from Cincinnati, Ohio two years ago," said Bryan County resident Becky Van De Hatert. "We were just tired of the cold, snow and grey winters. We wanted to raise our kids in a small town where they can go run around the neighborhood and come back when the street lights come on. Also being near the beach is nice."
Population numbers in Bryan County
According to the U.S. Census, Bryan County's population was 44,738 in 2020 and that number is predicted to grow to 49,000 in July 2024, a 9% increase in just four years, which puts Bryan County's population growth on par with large metropolitan areas.
The Georgia Coast study predicted a population of 45,986 by 2030 but did not foresee industries such as Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America, which has caused the aforementioned number to rise exponentially.
Bryan County Schools
The Bryan County School District is gearing up to meet the demands of growth. The school district’s website details plans to invest more than $200 million on new schools.
Here are a couple of the projected projects in the works.
Project: Bryan County High School
Cost: $55 million
Opening Date: August 2028
Features: The two-story school will feature a JROTC suite, multi-sport turf stadium with turf field and STEM & flex Labs.
Project: Richmond Hill High School
Cost: $97 million
Opening Date: August 2025
Features: The new school will feature an outdoor education classroom, healthcare science labs and a spring sports complex complete with baseball and softball fields and a lacrosse stadium.
Emergency Services
According to Kathryn Downs, assistant county manager for Bryan County, the county has 10 fire stations and has more than doubled its number of full-time employees within the county from 45 in 2014 to 103 in 2024.
"Bryan County Fire and Emergency Services provides both Fire and EMS/Paramedic Services with cross trained employees," said Downs. "Currently, the county has 8 budgeted ambulance units per shift. This number has doubled in the past decade. Bryan County also seeks state and federal grants to keep up with the needs associated with growth. In 2021, Bryan County was awarded the SAFER grant which is a three-year program. It added an additional 12 employees. When that period ends, Bryan County will continue to fund those positions by means of local funds. The county applied for another SAFER grant earlier this year requesting an additional 20 employees."
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Population numbers in Effingham County
Much like its neighbor in Bryan County, Effingham County is poised for growth too. The county’s population exceeds that of Bryan by more than 25,000. The Georgia Coast study predicted Effingham County’s population would reach 79,935 by 2030, a whopping 113% increase from 2000. The US Census predicts the county’s current population to be 71,541.
The county, in particular Rincon, used to be a bedroom community of Savannah but interest in the county’s school system has caused a significant uptick in residents planting roots there.
Effingham County Schools
More than 14,000 students are enrolled in the Effingham County School District for the 2023-24 school year. Since 2020, the district has seen an increase of 600 students annually.
Superintendent Yancy Ford confirmed the district is not planning to build a new high school but is adding on to Effingham County High School and South Effingham High School.
Both schools will see additional classrooms, a band room and fitness facility. ECHS will also get an auxiliary gym and locker rooms as SEHS already has those amenities.
“We will continue to evaluate the growth each year to ensure we have enough time to plan for a new high school if we need to,” said Ford. “The additions at both high schools would grow each high school to 2,500 students and Effingham College and Career Academy allows for over 1,500 students per day to travel within those programs at ECCA.”
Emergency Services
During the State of County Address April 17, Effingham County Manager Tim Callanan said 911 calls have increased 65% and fire calls are up nearly 20%. But the county is one step ahead in its efforts to ensure there is enough help to go around.
“Because of our population growth, it makes sense for the demand for public safety increases as well," said E-911 Director Jay Spinks. "To the credit of the dispatchers, they have been absolutely phenomenal in handling it.”
The county has 17 fire stations total and according to Public Information Officer Mark Lastinger, Fire Chief Clint Hodges says that is sufficient until 2030.
Latrice Williams is a general assignment reporter covering Bryan and Effingham County. She can be reached at lwilliams6@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Georgia Tech study predicted population boom nearly 20 years
