Are Iowans shifting their opinions of Trump after his conviction? Nearly half say no

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Almost half of Iowans say Donald Trump’s recent felony conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records does not matter when it comes to deciding how they’ll vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Forty-eight percent of Iowans, when asked if the Republican nominee’s conviction made them “more likely to support him, less likely or does it not matter,” say it does not matter, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found.

Almost a third (31%) of Iowans say Trump’s conviction — the first of a former president in U.S. history — makes them less likely to support him. And 19% say it makes them more likely to back the former president in November.

Among independents who say they are less likely to support Trump after his conviction, about half prefer President Joe Biden in the race for president, with Biden holding a 2-1 edge over independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. among that group.

Selzer & Co. conducted the poll of 806 Iowa adults from June 9-14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Among the 632 likely voters polled, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Trump was convicted in May by a jury of 12 New Yorkers on all counts. He continues to deride the case and conviction as a politically motivated attack by his opponents as he campaigns for another term in the White House.

He plans to appeal the conviction.

Shifts in support post-conviction depend on political party

Reactions to the guilty verdict vary by political affiliation.

A majority of Republicans (56%) say Trump’s conviction doesn’t affect whether they support him. Thirty-four percent of Iowans aligned with the Republican Party say they are more likely to support Trump after the verdict; 9% are now less likely to back him.

Dwayne Cooper, a 54-year-old poll respondent from Des Moines who agreed to a follow-up interview, is a Republican who is backing Trump in 2024. He said he believed the case and verdict against the former president was effectively a “rigged trial.”

“It’s a political movement against him,” Cooper said. “They take a little fine, that anybody off the street would go in and pay, and they made it into a big fiasco to try and get him on a bigger charge.”

There are “other things that other presidents have been guilty of that are way worse,” Cooper added, “they just never went to trial for it.”

Among self-described independents, 31% say the verdict makes them less likely to back Trump, compared with 17% who say it makes them more likely to support him. Half say it doesn’t matter.

One such independent is 34-year-old Kris Banderbush of Sheldon, who considers himself a libertarian and is leaning toward supporting Trump in 2024. The recent conviction doesn’t affect his decision-making.

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“Just as far as his ability to lead a country, I don’t see how that affects his ability at all,” Banderbush said. “I think it persuades more people to vote for him, if anything. We’ve never had a felon run for the presidency, and win the presidency, before. So, it’d be kind of interesting.”

Most Democrats say the verdict makes them less likely to support the former president (68%).  Another 30% say it doesn’t matter, and just 1% say it makes them more likely to back him.

“He had a fair trial,” said Bonnie Kuhn, a 76-year-old respondent from Carlisle. “What he did was wrong. He paid off a porn star, then lied about it. That is just not right. Presidents don’t do that, and then lie about it.”

More than half (54%) of Iowans who view both major-party candidates unfavorably say they’re less likely to support Trump in light of his felony conviction; 44% say it does not matter.

Likely Iowa voters’ candidate preferences reflect their opinions on verdict

Predictably, reactions to the verdict by likely Iowa voters skew depending on their preferred candidate.

Among likely voters supporting Trump, 38% say the verdict makes them more likely to back him; just 2% say it makes their support less likely. Fifty-nine percent say it doesn’t matter.

A majority of voters backing Biden — 68% — say Trump’s conviction makes them less likely to support him, and 29% say it doesn’t matter. Just 1% say it makes them more likely to back him.

More than half (52%) of Iowa voters who support a candidate other than Trump and Biden say the conviction makes them less likely to support Trump.

The poll shows Trump leading Biden in a general election matchup by 18 percentage points among likely Iowa voters, 50% to Biden’s 32%. Third-party candidates, including Kennedy, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver or “someone else,” received a combined 15% support.

Trump will remain on Iowa’s general election ballot in November, despite a state law disqualifying felons from holding office.

There are no federal laws preventing the former president from campaigning or governing because of a felony conviction.

Galen Bacharier covers the Statehouse & politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted June 9-14, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 806 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.

Questions based on the sample of 806 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Almost half say Trump conviction doesn't sway their vote