Missouri Republican governor’s race is close. What a new poll says about who’s ahead

Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft holds a small, margin-of-error lead over Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe in the Republican race for governor, according to a new poll that also shows nearly half of GOP primary voters remain undecided.

An Emerson College/The Hill poll of 489 Missouri Republican primary voters conducted earlier this week found 23% of respondents say they support Ashcroft and 20% support Kehoe. State Sen. Bill Eigel, a Weldon Spring Republican, has 6% support.

The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 4.4%, meaning the race remains effectively tied.

Most striking about the results, however, is the large number of undecided voters who remain six weeks before the Aug. 6 primary election. A full 46% of GOP voters said they are undecided (Missouri is an open primary state; the poll asked respondents which party primary they plan to vote in).

Kehoe, the former owner of a Jefferson City car dealership, has campaigned as a supporter of farmers and ranchers, veterans and first responders. He has accumulated endorsements from major statewide groups, including the Missouri Farm Bureau, the Missouri Hospital Association and the Missouri Chamber of Commerce PAC.

The main PAC supporting Kehoe has also received major contributions from St. Louis philanthropist and Republican mega-donor Rex Sinquefield, including a $1 million donation earlier this month.

Ashcroft, the son of former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft, has both emphasized the family connection while also pitching himself as an aggressive outsider. The senior Ashcroft has been featured in ads rebutting attacks by Kehoe’s camp, and Ashcroft has promised to seek a repeal of a recent gas tax increase and end the state income tax.

“Mike Kehoe’s campaign has spent millions of dollars and still trails Secretary Ashcroft, even though the Ashcroft campaign has yet to spend any money on voter contact,” Jason Cabel Roe, a spokesman for Ashcroft’s campaign, said in a statement.

Roe predicted that as Ashcroft’s campaign and the PAC supporting him begin airing digital and TV ads, Ashcroft’s lead will expand.

Kehoe’s campaign didn’t immediately comment on the results.

Kehoe, Ashcroft and Eigel will debate in St. Louis on July 24, KSDK-TV reported Thursday. KSDK will host the hour-long showdown, which will be simulcast on KSHB in Kansas City.

U.S. Senate race

Sen. Josh Hawley, a Republican, holds a comfortable lead over Democrat Lucas Kunce in the poll.

In the poll of 1,000 respondents, 47% said they support Hawley and 38% said they support Kunce. The results came with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

Emerson last polled the race in February. In the new poll, which was paid for by Nexstar Media, Hawley’s support has grown five percentage points since, while Kunce’s support grew eight points.

Kunce must still secure the Democratic nomination. He faces three Democratic opponents, including state Sen. Karla May of St. Louis.

Chiefs and Royals

As Kansas lawmakers attempt to attract the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals, Missouri voters want the teams to stay in Missouri.

Asked how important it is to keep the teams in Missouri, 63% said it was important the Chiefs stay in Missouri while 37% said it wasn’t important; 58% said it was important for the Royals to stay in Missouri, while 42% said it wasn’t.

The poll didn’t ask what should be done – if anything – to keep the teams in place.

The Kansas plan includes authorizing potentially billions in bonds to finance up to 70% of the cost of new stadiums for one or both teams. Missouri lawmakers say they support keeping both teams, but have signaled any potential special session is unlikely until after the August primary.

Presidential Race

The Emerson poll found that in a head-to-head match up, 53% of respondents say they support former President Donald Trump and 40% support President Joe Biden, with 7% undecided.

If third-party candidates are included, Trump’s support falls to 50% and Biden to 35%, with 7% supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West and Jill Stein each receiving 1% support.

In the 2020 election, Trump won 56.8% of the vote and Biden won 41.4%.