Only 50 hostages remain alive in Gaza, US intelligence officials believe

A woman holds a photo during a rally calling for a hostage release deal
A woman holds a photo during a rally calling for a hostage release deal - Amir Levy/Getty
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The number of Israeli hostages alive in captivity in Gaza may be as low as 50, according to leaks from mediators involved in the negotiations for a ceasefire deal.

It is the lowest assessment to date of the 120 people still imprisoned by the Hamas terrorist group, and comes as talks to end the war in Gaza have largely stalled amid growing anger at the Israeli government.

The Israeli authorities have previously estimated around half of the remaining hostages to still be alive, while Hamas admitted last week that “no one has an idea” about their current status.

Protestors painted their hands red to symbolise the blood of dead soldiers
Protestors painted their hands red to symbolise the blood of dead soldiers - Menaham Kahana/AFP via Getty

The latest estimates were reported by the Wall Street Journal, citing mediators in the hostage talks and a US official familiar with the latest intelligence.

Some 251 people were seized and abducted into the Gaza Strip when thousands of terrorists overwhelmed Israeli defences and attacked southern areas of the country on Oct 7.

In the past nine months, 105 were brought home through a temporary peace deal and seven have been rescued alive, including four in an audacious raid in Nuseirah, central Gaza, earlier this month.

A screen shows Noa Argamani embracing her father after she is rescued from the Gaza Strip
A screen shows Noa Argamani embracing her father after she is rescued from the Gaza Strip - Reuters/Marko Djurica

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, is facing growing pressure from the Israeli public to urgently negotiate a ceasefire deal with Hamas to bring home the missing before it is too late.

However, a three-part peace plan that would initially allow for a limited exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners has stalled over Hamas demands for guarantees of a permanent ceasefire and Israeli troop withdrawal.

Although the US insists Israel has accepted the deal on the table, Mr Netanyahu also faces pressure from far-Right members of his cabinet not to pull back troops until Hamas is destroyed.

At mass protests across Israel this week, demonstrators have held up posters showing the photos of those still in captivity or banners saying “Bring Them Home”. Many who are unhappy with the government’s war strategy have been demanding early elections.

A woman  in Tel Aviv looks at a wall covered with photos of hostages held in the Gaza Strip
A woman in Tel Aviv looks at a wall covered with photos of hostages held in the Gaza Strip - Amir Levy/Getty

On Thursday, Mr Netanyahu and his wife Sara met some families who have been notified that their loved ones are dead.

“We are committed to returning everyone, all 120 hostages – living and deceased. Even if this is in stages, we will not give up on anyone,” he said.

As negotiators struggled to find a compromise on Gaza, fighting continued in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, as well as other areas across the enclave.

At least 38 Palestinians were killed as Israeli troops engaged in close-quarter combat with Hamas militants, residents and Israel’s military said.

Residents said the Israelis appeared to be trying to complete their capture of Rafah, which borders Egypt and has been the focus of an Israeli assault since early May.

Meanwhile, hostilities between Israel and the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah are escalating and creating fears of a regional war.

On Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said plans for an attack in southern Lebanon had been approved, adding that steps had been taken to “accelerate readiness in the field”.

Israeli officials have told the US they are planning to shift resources from southern Gaza to northern Israel to prepare for a possible offensive, reported CNN, the US news channel.

Israeli army tank rolls into position on Israel's southern border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip
Israeli army tank rolls into position on Israel's southern border with the Palestinian Gaza Strip - Jack Guez/AFP via Getty

However, US officials have expressed serious concerns that if an all-out war erupts, Iran-backed Hezbollah could swamp Israel’s air defences, including the highly sophisticated Iron Dome.

“We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” a senior administration official told the news channel.

Top US officials hosted their Israeli counterparts, including Tzachi Hanegbi, the national security adviser, and Ron Dermer, the strategic affairs minister, in Washington on Thursday to discuss the ongoing crisis.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, told the officials to avoid further escalation in Lebanon amid the war in Gaza, the State Department said.

Mr Blinken “reiterated the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” the State Department readout said, adding that they had also discussed the ongoing talks to secure a hostage deal and ceasefire agreement.

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