Opinion | The bold bet behind Biden's new $50 million ad blitz

President Joe Biden wants Americans to “see Donald Trump for who he is,” according to his newest campaign ad, “Character Matters.” And that is a man who was convicted of 34 felony counts, was found liable for sexual abuse and committed financial fraud.

It’s not a subtle message, and it’s one the campaign hopes will resonate — especially with crucial independent voters.

On Monday morning, Biden’s campaign announced an eye-popping $50 million nationwide ad buy meant to indelibly connect Trump’s name with the phrase “convicted felon.” Fifty million bucks isn’t chump change, even for a president who just proved he can rake in $30 million in a single day. Biden’s big spend comes just 10 days before he takes on Trump in their first televised debate, and it suggests the former president’s lengthy criminal record is becoming an increasing focus of the campaign. Biden is clearly betting that Trump’s criminal history will be a major turnoff to the centrists — and new survey data offers signs it could still pay off.

It has been just over two weeks since a New York jury made history by finding Trump guilty of 34 felony counts, and reliable survey data continues to trickle in from across the country. A Politico/Ipsos poll published Monday found that 21% of independents said Trump’s conviction made them much less likely to support him. Those unaligned voters also take Trump’s conviction seriously: Over a third (36%) of independents said Trump’s conviction will be a very or somewhat important factor in deciding how they’ll vote in November.

Trump’s baseless claims that shadowy forces rigged his trial are also convincing fewer independents than Republicans: 46% of independents in Politico’s poll said they thought Trump got a fair trial, compared to 27% who agreed with the former president that it was unfair. In other words, Trump’s victimhood rhetoric may not be resonating with independents as much as he thinks.

(This is compared to the majority of Republicans who continue to insist, without a shred of evidence, that the former president has been railroaded.)

Whether Trump cares about these polls seems unclear. But he has increasingly abandoned any appeals to moderate voters in favor of playing directly to his far-right base, and that could have consequences.

In North Carolina, which last supported a Democratic presidential nominee in 2008, Trump’s conviction has soured enough moderates to potentially put the state’s 16 electoral votes back in competitive play. According to one focus group, half of North Carolina’s swing voters believe Trump should serve prison time. Assuming Biden’s national advertising blitz will include North Carolina, cash-strapped Republicans will be forced to spend more money in a state they once considered politically safe.

Meanwhile, Trump is diverting hundreds of millions of campaign dollars to pay his massive attorney fees. This won’t help his campaign expand its messaging operation to more purple states like North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada.

The former president is due back in court on July 11 to find out whether he’ll be sentenced to prison, raising the bizarre possibility that Trump could be forced to accept his presidential nomination from home confinement or perhaps even behind bars. If that happens, Biden has more than enough campaign cash to blast another round of ads out to every swing voter in America.

Biden’s latest ad buy gives Democrats the rare opportunity to define their opponent in a way that’s (nearly) impossible to spin away. Trump’s felony conviction is simply a fact and something a sizable population of centrists and independents find repulsive. Biden’s $50 million megaphone will keep showing skeptical voters Trump’s criminality in all its rotten glory. In a race likely to be decided by inches, it could make a difference.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com