Poll: Who is leading Missouri’s race for U.S. president?

ST. LOUIS – The 2024 U.S. presidential election will likely consist of a rematch between Democratic candidate Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump in reverse spots as the incumbent and challenger.

Voters will have an opportunity to choose a presidential candidate in the Nov. 5, 2024, general election, now less than six months away.

Who is the favored presidential candidate in Missouri? The new poll results indicate it’s the same candidate that a majority of state voters supported in the last two election cycles.

A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll conducted in Missouri finds that 53.1% of voters would select Donald Trump and 39.5% of voters would select Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch between both candidates.

Among poll respondents, 7.3% say they would be undecided about which candidate to choose in a potential rematch.

“At the presidential level, there’s not much for Biden to pick up it seems. Trump is winning among independents, 46%-38%. He’s winning majorities of both men and women,” Matt Taglia, Emerson College’s senior polling director, said.

“There is the potential that statewide ballot initiatives (i.e. abortion access) could narrow those margins, but as things stand right now, this is not a competitive state for President Biden.”

Those poll respondents received a follow-up question: “Although you are undecided, which candidate do you lean toward?” The poll found that 51.4% of undecided voters would lean toward Biden, while 48.6% would lean toward Trump.

All poll respondents were later asked who they would support in a hypothetical 2024 presidential rematch between five candidates. Those include Trump, Biden and third-party candidates Robert Kennedy, Cornell West and Jill Stein.

The poll indicates that 50.4% of voters would select Trump, 34.6% of voters would select Biden, 6.5% of voters would select Kennedy, 1% of voters would select West and less than 1% of voters would select Stein. The poll also revealed that 6.9% of voters are currently undecided among this field of candidates.

In six elections since the turn of the new millennium, Missourians have sided with the Republican presidential candidate each time. Around 57% of Missouri voters sided with Trump in each of the past two presidential elections, according to results from the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office.

Before then, Missouri had the reputation of being a battleground state. A majority of Missouri voters supported the eventual president-elect in all but one election in the 20th century.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, offered insight into one notable trend within the poll results. “New voters, those who did not vote in 2020, break for Trump over Biden, 46% to 31%, reflecting a trend in statewide and national polling,” he said.

Trump served as the 45th U.S. president from January 20, 2017 to January 20, 2021. If elected again, he would be the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms.

Last month, a jury convicted Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records in a hush money case. Trump also faces ongoing legal challenges in cases over a Georgia election, a federal election, classified documents, and civil fraud, according to The Associated Press. Of the people responding to the poll, 36% indicated that the conviction has no impact on their vote, with 31.1% saying that they are more likely to vote for Trump. There were 32.8% of the respondents who said they are less likely to vote for Trump.

Biden has served as the 46th president of the United States of America since January, 20, 2021. It’s his first term after serving as vice president under Barack Obama for eight years. Missourians told Emerson College and The Hill that 58% of them disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president.

As for the third-party candidates, Robert Kennedy is running for office through the “We The People” political party, Jill Stein is running for office through the “Green Party of the United States of America,” and Cornel West is running for office through an unaffiliated party.

Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Missouri conducted this poll. Review our methodology and data here.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to FOX 2.