State House Dome: House control will be a close call again

Jun. 21—JUDGING FROM candidate filings, majority control of the House of Representatives will be a close call again on Election Night Nov. 5.

According to unofficial records from the Secretary of State's office, Democrats and Republicans are close to tied on numbers of candidates for the House's 400 seats.

Of the seats previously held by Republicans, 44 are open. For Democrats, 46 are open.

On the final filing day, Democratic Party Chairman Raymond Buckley nominated 15 candidates to fill out the ranks, and Republican Chairman Chris Ager had 11 who agreed to sign up with his approval.

Republicans filled out the slate in three counties (Belknap, Carroll and Sullivan), while Democrats closed it out in Strafford County and had only one opening in Cheshire County, a reliable Democratic stronghold.

The city-versus-town split seen in most elections continued. Democrats don't have candidates in 11 races in cities, while Republicans had three dozen, more than half in the state's largest cities of Nashua (12) and Manchester (9).

Conversely, Democrats struggled to find candidates in some of the most Republican suburbs, including Hudson (three), Derry (four), Londonderry (three) and Salem (three).

Senate scenario

Right now, it appears that only one of the 24 incumbent senators, Majority Whip Regina Birdsell, R-Hampstead, will have a free ride to a sixth term.

That could change if Democrats mount a write-in campaign in the Sept. 10 primary.

Buckley's biggest get was a candidate in Senate District 16, the seat held by Manchester Republican Keith Murphy.

State Librarian Michael York of Goffstown, who is retiring from his state job in December, has agreed to take part in a write-in campaign for the seat.

In 2022, then-Manchester Alderman-at-Large June Trisciani agreed to answer the same call and became the Democratic nominee via write-in.

As it happened that year, Murphy only emerged as the choice of GOP leaders when then-Rep. Michael Yakubovich, R-Hooksett, had to withdraw from the race because of a battle with cancer.

GOP-led redistricting in 2021 made the seat a tough one for Democrats to win. The district includes Manchester Ward 1, along with the GOP-heavy towns of Raymond, Goffstown and Candia.

By midweek, Republicans filled their final Senate ballot opening, with Don Cardinale of Newfields agreeing to run against Sen. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka, D-Portsmouth.

Democrat Brenda Oldak of South Hampton is running for the District 23 seat held by three-term Sandown Republican Bill Gannon.

The two squared off in 2022, with Gannon winning by nearly 4,000 votes.

Big bucks for challenger

First-term state Rep. Emily Phillips, R-Fremont, put her money where her mouth was, securing more campaign contributions than her primary foe, Sen. Gannon, after only three weeks on the trail.

Philips raised $74,500 and had more than $65,000 in the bank.

Gannon was competitive, taking in $28,000 since last December and more than $63,000 overall. He's nearly $57,000 in the black.

To date, Phillips's biggest donor was the Health Equality Campaign of Brooklyn, New York. She sponsored legislation that sought to restrict access to circumcision under the state's Medicaid plan (HB 1683), which the House tabled last spring.

Other GOP conservatives pitching in for Phillips included Windham businessman Tom Murray ($5,000); former state Rep. Timothy Baxter ($2,500); Rep. Carol McGuire, R-Epsom ($1,500); Joseph Rich of Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania, and Jane Richmond of Andover, Mass. ($5,000 each).

Gannon got $500 from Republican candidate for governor Kelly Ayotte of Nashua as well as from tobacco maker Altria Client Services, Comcast and Kingston businessman Michael Foy.

The Bedford-based Life, Liberty and Prosperity of New Hampshire group gave Gannon $10,000, and the New Hampshire Charitable Gaming Operators gave him $1,000.

Gannon's biggest boost this past week came when Gov. Chris Sununu decided to endorse him.

"Senator Bill Gannon is a principled conservative and a proven leader in the State Senate. A man of his word, Bill gets the job done for the families and communities he serves," Sununu said.

All 13 of Gannon's GOP colleagues also are backing him, while Phillips has gotten a thumbs-up from 120 House Republicans.

Bradley backs Prescott

Senate President Jeb Bradley, R-Wolfeboro, is stepping up for a Senate alumnus, endorsing former Executive Councilor and Sen. Russell Prescott, R-Kingston, in the GOP primary for the 1st Congressional District.

Bradley, who held the seat for two terms two decades ago, said there are "several good candidates," but Prescott's fiscally conservative record and work ethic set him apart.

The three major GOP hopefuls — Newfields businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, Derry entrepreneur Chris Bright and Prescott — will take part in a forum the Center Right organization is putting on this Thursday at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

Anti-tax pledge unites field for governor

Credit National Federation of Independent Business exec Bruce Berke with asking right out of the gate at the first forum of candidates for governor whether they would veto a sales or income tax.

All three major candidates present, former Senate President Chuck Morse, Democratic Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington of Concord and Ayotte said they would.

Former Manchester Democratic Mayor Joyce Craig missed the event, but through a spokesman, confirmed she too has taken the pledge in this race.

Ballot slots set

Secretary of State David Scanlan presided over the drawing for the rotation of multiple candidates running for the same seat and rotation of party columns.

The party-column drawing is much-watched by both political parties. Research has shown the first ballot position can give a candidate as much as a 5% boost at the polls.

Each party got the coveted first position on the left side of the ballot this November in eight state Senate districts, with the other eight reserved for independent or third-party candidates.

Democrats are listed first in state Senate District 1, which is among what they think are their best chances to flip a Senate seat, with Rusty Talbot of Sugar Hill squaring off against state Rep. David Rochefort, R-Littleton.

The winner replaces first-termer Carrie Gendreau, R-Littleton, who decided not to run after her comments against LGBTQ+ art in her hometown touched off a firestorm of criticism.

Democrats also got the first position in District 9, which is a rematch of the 2022 race between Sen. Ricciardi and Bedford Democrat Matthew McLaughlin.

Republicans got the prime real estate for Senate District 8, which is good news for four-term Sen. Ruth Ward, R-Stoddard, who has had some competitive races in the past. They also got it in District 11, which Rep. Tim McGough, R-Merrimack, welcomes as he tries to knock off Sen. Shannon Chandley, R-Amherst.

NH a national target

New Hampshire's Legislature made Politico's list of the five states where the majority is most likely to flip.

The article said the House was the likeliest chamber to change.

"Control of the Legislature has switched back and forth between parties over the years, underscoring the opportunity for either party to sell voters on a different vision for policymaking," the report said.

The story incorrectly stated Republicans hold 199 of the 400 seats. They hold a 200-193 edge over Democrats, though the two independents in the House were elected as Democrats in 2022 and changed parties.

One of those independents, Rep. Maria Perez, filed her intent to be on the general election ballot for one of four seats in Milford, while Democrats filled out their slate.

The other independent, Rep. Shaun Filiault of Keene, did not turn in papers to qualify to run this fall.

The other competitive states in legislative elections in November are both houses in Arizona (now Republican), the Michigan House (Democratic), Minnesota House (Democratic) and both houses in Pennsylvania (House Democratic by one seat, Senate Republican by six).

UNH poll: Ayotte popular

Ayotte had by far the best favorability rating among the major candidates for governor, according to the latest poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Democrats Craig and Warmington had similar profiles, though nearly half (47%) had never heard of Warmington.

Housing was by far the biggest issue, with 32% rating it No. 1, followed by education at 7%. Abortion was tied for 13th with 1%.

Institutional memory loss

Every two years, as much as one-third of House membership turns over. Much of that is voluntary as incumbents decide to call it a career or take a respite.

Several notables are moving on this time.

—Jeff Goley, D-Manchester: The 12-termer is a retired firefighter and leader in the state labor movement who served on three different committees the past two years.

He represents Manchester Ward 1. What was interesting here was House Democratic Leader Matt Wilhelm of Manchester has decided to run to replace him, leaving a district that includes Manchester wards 1, 3, 10, 11 and 12.

—JR Hoell, R-Dunbarton: A five-term conservative firebrand, Hoell played major roles in the New Hampshire Firearms Coalition and the New Hampshire Liberty Caucus. On Wednesday, he let the party put his name in to fill an opening to run for Merrimack County register of probate.

—Mel Myler, D-Hopkinton: The ranking Democrat on the House Education Committee, Myler is in his sixth term and was an executive with the National Education Association of New Hampshire union before running for office.

In one of the few Democratic primaries for House seats, five are running for four spots in Hopkinton, and Bow. Rep. Angela Brennan, D-Bow, is also exiting the House to run for the State Senate.

—Amanda Toll, D-Keene: A second-term member, Toll is a small business owner and a champion for abortion rights. The mother of two often brought her very young children to attend sessions with her in the House.

—Laurie Sanborn, R-Bedford: No surprise here, the House Ways and Means chair and House speaker pro tem missed much of the 2023 session to care for her ailing husband, former state Sen. Andy Sanborn. The couple was forced to accept a two-year suspension of their charity casino license at their bar in downtown Concord unless they decided to sell it by this summer, following allegations of misspent COVID business loans.

—Andy Renzullo, R-Hudson: This nine-term member served as chairman of the House Resources, Recreation and Development Committee and over the years was a major figure in the conservative House Republican Alliance.

They can't stay away

Several former legislators are back on the ballot this fall.

Former state Sen. and Senate Finance Chairman Gary Daniels, R-Milford, is seeking a House seat this fall. Chandley beat him in 2022.

Also former House Deputy Speaker Kim Rice, R-Hudson, wants to return after a two-year hiatus to care for her family. Rice played a super-sized role in Nikki Haley's presidential campaign in the Granite State.

Westmoreland Democrat Paul Berch is also running again.

Berch had to leave the House due to serious health problems, but thanks to an organ transplant, he's back on the mend and attended several legislative hearings over the past biennium.

Kevin Landrigan is State House Bureau Chief for the New Hampshire Union Leader and Sunday News. Contact him at klandrigan@unionleader.com.