We’re Heading Into the Final Days of the Trump Trial. Here’s What to Expect.

Read our ongoing coverage of Donald Trump’s first criminal trial here.

Every week for the past several months, I’ve been writing about Donald Trump’s legal troubles, and I’ve gotten to see, time and time again, how he has fought tooth and nail to delay and derail his criminal hush money case. Last week, I finally got to see Trump in the flesh as he strode into the Manhattan courtroom, a scowl on his face, frowning at just about every person there, including the 12 jurors who are about to decide his fate.

Trump sat sandwiched between his attorneys and flanked by his son Don Jr. and adviser Boris Epshteyn. As his defense team rested its case, each member of the jury sat upright and watched the day’s proceedings intently. Closing arguments are scheduled for Tuesday, and the jury is expected to begin its deliberations the following day. Its members have a lot to consider.

Over the past six weeks, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has presented his case for why Trump should be convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, bringing in witnesses who described how badly Trump wanted to protect his image ahead of the 2016 election: David Pecker, the former CEO of American Media Inc., and Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney and personal fixer. Pecker confirmed he used his tabloid empire to kill negative stories about Trump, while Cohen, the prosecution’s star witness, testified that Trump instructed him to pay off porn actor Stormy Daniels weeks before the 2016 election to protect his presidential campaign and prevent Daniels from going public about her affair with Trump.

In order to find Trump guilty of felony record-keeping fraud, the jury must unanimously agree that the prosecution has proved, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Trump falsified records when making payments to Cohen and that he did so with the intent to conceal another crime, like the violation of election laws. Trump’s attorneys have argued that the payments to Cohen were simply legal fees, while the prosecutors have spent the entire trial trying to prove they were actually reimbursements for the payment Cohen made to Daniels to preserve Trump’s standing with the voting public before Election Day. Even one defection will lead to a hung jury—meaning no verdict is reached and Trump is neither convicted nor acquitted.

“If they’re responsible jurors, they’re going to take some time, regardless of whether they have strong feelings about the case, to go through the instructions and walk through what the different witnesses proved in their minds and debate with each other,” Rebecca Lonergan, a professor at the University of Southern California Gould School of Law and a former federal prosecutor, told Slate.

Lonergan expects jury members to take at least a few days, if not a couple of weeks, to come to a decision. And if they ask New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan for readbacks—transcripts of trial testimony to refresh their memory about what certain witnesses said on the stand—that will only add time to the deliberation process.

A major factor in the jury’s deliberations will be how reliable the group believes Cohen to be. He has been convicted of lying to Congress once before—even serving prison time—and has admitted to having a vendetta against Trump. However, during the hush money trial, he has maintained to the jury that he told his past lies “in order to protect” his former boss.

Currently, the jury is being asked to decide whether to convict Trump on felony charges alone. However, Merchan could introduce “lesser included offenses,” allowing the jury to convict Trump on misdemeanor charges instead. This would require the defense to waive its statute of limitations, since misdemeanor charges can be pursued only within a two-year window of the crime, according to New York law. However, if Trump’s attorneys want to limit a more damaging verdict, it might be in their favor to offer the jury lesser charges to consider.

“A misdemeanor charge just requires proof that the former president intentionally falsified business records, but to convict on a felony, the jury would have to believe that the former president did so with the intent to conceal another crime,” Lauren-Brooke Eisen, senior director at the Brennan Center’s Justice Program, explained to Slate.

It’s not yet clear whether misdemeanor charges will be thrown into the mix. Nonetheless, the type of white-collar felony that Trump faces typically brings a prison sentence of one to four years. All the experts Slate spoke to believe that Trump won’t actually spend time behind bars. “First-time offender in New York City? Zero prison time,” said Adam Pollock, a former New York assistant attorney general. He thinks Trump, if convicted, will likely have to serve just probation, since his case deals with a nonviolent crime and a relatively small amount of money—Daniels was paid $130,000 in her hush money deal.

Probation allows a defendant to remain out of prison with some restrictions on their liberty. In Trump’s case, the exact terms of his probation would be determined by Merchan, and they could include having to wear an ankle monitor, attending regular check-ins with an assigned probation officer, and completing community service. He might also be required to get permission anytime he travels, and his probation officer would have the legal right to make unannounced visits to his home.

If the jury cannot come to a unanimous decision, then Merchan would be forced to declare a mistrial, and though not acquitted of the charges, Trump would be free to walk. Bragg would need to decide whether he wants to retry Trump all over again. An important piece of that calculus will be finding out why the jury couldn’t reach a verdict. “Was it one holdout? Were there lots of jurors who didn’t think there could be a conviction?” said Eisen. “Was there an extended deliberation? There will be a lot of things that the office will want to consider before retrying.”

And if the jury finds Trump guilty, he will most likely appeal the verdict. Similar to Trump’s civil fraud case, he would need to pay a bond while the appeal plays out, which would take months, at a minimum.